What does Trump's Gold Card proposal mean for EB-5
On February 25, 2025, President Donald Trump announced his intention to introduce a new investment-based immigration program, the so-called “Gold Card” program, which would require investors to invest $5 million in return for permanent residence in the U.S. His initial comments indicated that he would like for the new Gold Card program to replace the EB-5 programs. It is important to note that President Trump cannot just cancel the EB-5 programs, which are anchored in laws passed by Congress, and replace them with his new Gold Card program. The self-directed “standard” EB-5 program is a permanent program enacted into law nearly 35 years ago. The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program (the regional center EB-5 program) is a temporary program, enacted into law nearly 33 years ago, which needs to be renewed by Congress, and it is currently in effect until September 30, 2027.
While Trump continuously tries to use executive orders to nullify laws passed by Congress and even the U.S. Constitution, the Supreme Court has consistently upheld Congress’ authority, under Article I, Section 8, of the Constitution, to set immigration policy (See Fiallo v. Bell, 1977). If President Trump would try, by executive order, to interfere with the processing of cases under the standard EB-5 program or the regional center EB-5 program, it would take just one lawsuit filed by an EB-5 investor or a regional center in a federal court, in any of the 50 U.S. states, in order to stop the Trump Administration from using an executive order or interference by any other means behind the scenes. In practice, there would be multiple class-action lawsuits by investors and regional centers to stop such interference.
It is important to bear in mind that the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program has strong bipartisan support in Congress, which is based on the tens of thousands of jobs that the program creates indirectly yearly (now, more evenly distributed across an increasing number of states), the additional spending and investment in the U.S. economy emanating from the EB-5 investors and their family members, and campaign contributions that the regional center owners make directly, and indirectly through lobbyists, to members of Congress. Trump’s proposal is an existential threat to EB-5 regional centers. They understand that and will respond accordingly, fighting in the halls of Congress with all their might and influence to protect the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, and the standard EB-5 program by extension.
Given the bipartisan support for the EB-5 program, it will be difficult for the Republicans to pass the Gold Card proposal in the currently highly divided U.S. Congress, if the proposal would have the effect of eliminating the EB-5 program (if it is proposed as a replacement of the EB-5 program, not as a separate program). In the House of Representatives, the Republicans have a thin majority of only 3 votes (218 to 215), and so if only 2 Republican Representatives and all Democrats would vote against the Gold Card proposal, it would fail in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Republicans have a thin majority of only 3 votes (53 to 47), but with the Republican Vice-President as a tie breaker. The proposal could clear the Senate probably only if it is attached to a spending bill, which requires only a simple majority of 51 votes. Therefore, if 4 Republican Senators and all Democrats would vote against the Gold Card proposal, then the Gold Card proposal would fail.
To be brutally frank, given the timing of this proposal, at a time when President Trump is cozying up to Vladimir Putin and his oligarchs, I think that the Democrats and many anti-Putin Republicans will view this proposal as a poisoned chalice, since it serves as an invitation to ultra-wealthy Russian oligarchs to bring their ill-gotten gains to the U.S. and launder their money by buying real estate from Trump. The investors under the existing EB-5 program, which allows just moderately wealthy entrepreneurs and professionals to immigrate to the U.S. from around the world, as long as they can prove the legal source of their investment funds, have no need or interest to launder money by buying real estate from President Trump, is not as interesting to President Trump. Therefore, President Trump finds it necessary to create a new program with looser rules, or no rules at all, for proving the legal source of investment funds.
In conclusion, I believe that President Trump will not succeed in passing the legislation through Congress to implement his Gold Card proposal. President Trump cannot set up the program to approve permanent residence without Congress creating immigrant visa (green card) allocations for the program. Therefore, I think that the Gold Card program will go nowhere.